What to look for in U.S. midterm polls today

Muriel Colon
November 6, 2018

"That is an area where both the Trump administration and Democrats agree", he said. All gloves are off as both parties hope to keep or gain power in an election not lacking in juicy scandals. And 35 Senate seats are in play, as are nearly 40 governorships and the balance of power in virtually every state legislature.

One way to gauge the current state of Trump support is to watch the Senate race pitting incumbent Democrat Elizabeth Warren against Republican Geoff Diehl, who is not just the former co-chair of Trump's campaign in MA but who has pitched himself as a partner, someone who will advance the president's agenda in Washington. Members serve six-year terms, with elections staggered. The stakes really are that high.

Trump is complaining at a rally in Georgia that "we pay these countries hundreds of millions of dollars" even though "they don't do a damn thing for us".

"We're not some fringe element of the Democratic Party". "These are some very close races and they are in states where Trump won big".

DeSantis had already established his MAGA credentials with a profoundly unusual ad featuring his wife and children. The views expressed here are exclusively his.

"Racist!"cried the Democrats, pointing out that Gillum is African-American". DeSantis reacted by resigning from Congress to focus on his campaign. A wholesome, gentlemanly contest all around!

"With a projected 7 percent advantage over the GOP, Democrats are expected to make significant gains in Pennsylvania". Make of that what you will.

And it looks like Democrats will be able to obtain an easy win, according to recent surveys.

While he is not on the ballot, Trump himself has acknowledged that the 2018 midterms, above all, represent a referendum on his presidency. Vice-President Mike Pence was also in the state to boost Kemp's candidacy. Eighteen-year-old Katherine Morgan let out a squeak of joy when she learned that not only had the man she called already voted, but he also had a sign for Tony Evers, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee, in his front yard.

David Swenson, an Iowa State University economist, said there has been a palpable political shift in the state since the 2016 elections. "They didn't realize how many people out there were waiting for Election Day". Republican Duncan Hunter has held it since 2009, but was indicted in August for alleged misuse of campaign funds.

"For Democrats, winning the House is not necessarily about advancing a major agenda of their own; it's about preventing the Republicans from advancing their agenda", Mr Kondik said.

Hunter may be feeling entitled to the seat, which was held by his father from 1981 to 2009, so he is pulling no punches against his Democrat challenger, accusing him of changing his name to appear Hispanic, being "funded by the Muslim Brotherhood", and being the grandson of a Palestinian terrorist. Of the states with earlier closures, Florida, Pennsylvania and NY have a number of House seats which Democrats consider winnable.

But taken as a whole - as they will be in the late hours Tuesday and throughout Wednesday and likely into history - they inevitably will be read as a measure of Mr. Trump's issue portfolio (tax cuts, immigration overhaul, opposition to a national health-care scheme).

This is no hyperbole, either: State representative David McSweeney (R) has described Arthur Jones as "a complete nutcase" and a "Nazi".

The current forecast by CNN Politics sees as most likely outcome Mr Casey retaining his seat and beating Mr Barletta by 16 points. "I wouldn't say it's as important as '16, but it's right up there".

The GOP missed a deadline to put a third-party candidate on the ballot, and have resorted to throwing its support behind a write-in candidate, disavowing Jones, denouncing his candidacy, and even running robocalls against him. He added that committees will start to investigate various agencies and allow Democrats to zero in on concerns they have about "how big corporate interests are turning our environmental laws inside out at the Environmental Protection Agency and the Interior Department".

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